China Land Policy Program - Land Issues In China

Tension Between Land and People

The Land

Vast Land: China’s territory is 9.6 million square kilometers. More than 60 percent of the total population, however, lives on the plains and basins that make up less than one-third of the nation’s territory.

Fragmentation of Land: A third of China is mountainous, about a quarter is plateau, and about 10 percent is hilly. The mountains and plateau areas are located in the middle and western portions of the country. About one-third of the land is 2,000 meters or more above mean sea level, most of it also in the west. These lands are almost unusable for any purposes, and include the Gobi Desert and other desert areas, glaciers and snow land. These areas account for one-fifth of the land mass of China. (Zhang and Li 1997).

Limited Farmland: The total amount of farmland (or cultivated land) is 2 billion mu (one mu = 666.67 square meters). This accounts for 7 % of the world total.

Limited Land Resource: Arable land accounts for less than 14 percent and most of it is located in the east. Forest land accounts for less than 12 % of the total area.

The Population

Vast Population: China has 1.3 billion people, 39% of whom live in cities. About 94% of the population lives in the eastern part (48% of all of China) of the country.

Population Forecast: Even though the growth of China’s population has been slowed due to its strict population growth control policy, it is expected that the total population will peak at 1.8 billion by 2050. Responding to industrialization and economic development, about half of that population will live in cities.

Urban Growth: There are 666 cities in China, a remarkable increase from the 182 cities that existed in 1982. As expected, most of cities are located in the eastern half of the country. If the current trend of urbanization continues, there will most likely be 500 cities in China, each with more than one million people by 2020.

Urban Expansion: Already urbanized areas are also growing fast. Some cities grew by 200% in the decade between 1985 and 1995. A survey using satellite images shows that urbanized areas in the country’s 31 largest cities expanded by 50-to-200 % between 1986 and 1996.

The Tension between Population and Land

Low Per Capita Farmland: China is able to feed 21% of the world’s population with 7% of the world’s farmland. In 1995, the world average per capita farmland was 3.75 mu, but in China it was only 1.75 mu, less than the half of the world average.

Low Quality of Farmland: Less than 40 percent of Chinese farms have irrigation systems. Yet regions with more than 80 percent of the nation’s water resources have less than 38 percent of all farmland. About 30 percent of all farmland suffers from various degrees of soil erosion and more than 40 percent of farmland in arid and semi-arid regions is in jeopardy of becoming desert.

Demand for Land: Industrial expansion and the provision of infrastructure that has lagged behind existing development will continue to increase the demand for land in the next 30-to-50 years. Non-agricultural construction accounted 380 million mu in 1995. It is expected to reach 720 million mu by 2050. An estimated 190 million mu of this non-agricultural construction is expected to take place on farmland.

Urbanization: Urbanization will accelerate along with industrialization. One of the biggest challenges will be to provide housing for the estimated 150 million to 200 million population who will either migrate from rural areas or are new-born urban residents.

Limited Land Supply: The coefficient of land use, which measures the amount of usable land compared to the total land available, is low in China. This is partly because of physical conditions, such as terrain, geology, climate, water resources, etc. China has floating desert of 670 million mu and the Gobi Desert of 840 million mu. Mountains more than 400 meters above sea level account for 2.9 billion mu. Therefore, approximately 30% of all the land in China is unusable.

Distribution of Land Resource and Land Pressure: The uneven distribution of resources and land imposes further pressure on human activities and increases the tension between people and how the land is used. A majority of the country’s population, economy, infrastructure, and farmland is located in the east, making every inch of land there valuable. The west, however, features vast and mostly unusable land. More than 86% of the country’s farmland and nearly 94% of its population are located in the eastern part of China (48% of its territory).

Food Security for China: Scholars such as Lester Brown (who published an article and a book with the same title, Who Will Feed the Chinese in the 21st Century, in1994 and 1995) question China’s ability to continue to feed its growing population in the 21st century. Brown believes that a severe shortage in food supply not only drives up crop prices in the world market, but also destabilizes China. This issue so alarmed top Chinese officials that they have made the goal of self-reliance in crops one of their top national policy priorities. That, in turn, has led China to adopt tough measures for farmland protection (discussed below). The Chinese now believe the nation’s sovereignty and independence in international affairs rests on its ability to be self-reliant in raising the crops necessary to feed its expanding population.

Farmland Demand Forecast: It is estimated that 2.0 billion mu farmland is needed for self-reliance in food production. This also represents the current inventory of farmland in China. In 1995, however, a study forecast that the net loss of farmland would be 56-to-57 million mu in the first decade in the 21st century. Among the farmland expected to be lost would be some 50 million mu that would be converted back to forestry, grassland, or bodies of water as ways of addressing ecological and environmental problems such as “yellow dust,?erosion, flooding, and conversion of arid lands into deserts. Soil erosion and deforestation are widely believed to be responsible for flooding, yellow dust, and arid lands becoming deserts. It has been estimated that deserts are expanding at a rate of 1,560 squared kilometers per year. About 4-5 million mu of farmland would be lost to urban and town construction and about 2 million mu of farmland would be needed for economic development (mainly manufacturing) and infrastructure.